User:Tennessee Ernie Ford/Gifts of the Traveler Analysis

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These are random musings, jumbled thoughts, and generally brain-fart material not ready for prime time. Please comment/amend assuming that I meant something mo' better, but have phrased/presented it poorly. Thanks!

Not Ready for Prime Time

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[edit] Raw Data

Item	Exp	Type	Value	#	%
Hunter's Ale x10	51.3	Drunk	1000	127	5.1%
Aged Hunter's Ale x10	126.3	Drunk	2500	125	5.1%
Keg of Aged Hunter's Ale	620.6	Drunk	16000	96	3.9%
Champagn Poppers x10	49.3	Party	1000	122	4.9%
Bottle Rockets x10	40.8	Party	1000	101	4.1%
Sparklers x10	49.7	Party	1000	123	5.0%
Crate of Fireworks x5	63.0	Party	2000	78	3.2%
Disco Ball x3	50.3	Party	1500	83	3.4%
Jar of Honey x10	102.6	Sweet	2000	127	5.1%
Honeycombs x10	46.9	Sweet	1000	116	4.7%
Green Rock Candy x5	68.5	Sweet	1500	113	4.6%
Blue Rock Candy x5	163.6	Sweet	3000	135	5.5%
Red Rock Candy x5	186.7	Sweet	3500	132	5.3%
Mysterious Summoning Stone x5	690.9	Summons	5000	342	13.8%
Mercantile Summoning Stone x5	317.2	Summons	5000	157	6.3%
Mysterious Tonic x5	1015.2	Summons	7500	335	13.5%
Cottontail Tonic x5	90.5	Tonic	2000	112	4.5%
Everlasting Cottontail Tonic	808.1	Tonic	500000	4	0.2%
Mini Gwen Doll	210.1	Mini	260000	2	0.1%
Mini Yakkington	323.2	Mini	200000	4	0.2%
Mini Brown Rabbit	161.6	Mini	200000	2	0.1%
Vampiric Dragon Sword	80.8	Weapon	25000	8	0.3%
Traveler's Bo Staff	1050.5	Weapon	200000	13	0.5%
Traveler's Walking Stick	242.4	Weapon	200000	3	0.1%
Icy Dragon Sword	36.4	Weapon	15000	6	0.2%
Ascalon Razor	22.2	Weapon	11000	5	0.2%
Moss Spider Egg	97.0	Other	60000	4	0.2%
Everlasting Crate of Fireworks	0.0	Party	60000	0	0.0%
Totals	6765.7	Totals		2475	100.0%

• Source: Official Wiki drop rate data as of 4 June
• Values: from merch, trade channel, gwauctions, guru auctions, or predicted — subject to perception and market forces

[edit] Pattern Analysis

Exp	By Type	#	%	Val %
798.2	Drunk	348	14.1%	11.8%
694.9	Mini	8	0.3%	10.3%
97.0	Other	4	0.2%	1.4%
253.1	Party	507	20.5%	3.7%
2023.2	Summons	834	33.7%	29.9%
568.3	Sweet	623	25.2%	8.4%
898.6	Tonic	116	4.7%	13.3%
1432.3	Weapon	35	1.4%	21.2%
6765.7	Totals	2475	100.0%	100.0%

[edit] Obeservations

• Expected value is around 6 800 and very sensitive to the still fluctuating trade values of the rare items. (prices have been varying at least by a factor of 10 for minis and weapons)
• Drunk, non-tonic party, and sweets account for 60% of the drops, but only 24% of the value.
• 49 gifts gives you a 50/50 chance of finding a weapon: weapons drop 1.4% of the time → (1 - (1 - 1.4%) ^ 49) = 50.2% (the chance of not getting a weapon 49 times in a row)

[edit] Comments

In-game, people have come to believe that the "fair" price for a single gift is > 5 and < 7 . This appears to be, in part, from a similar analysis on the official wiki. I don't think any amount of conversation in-game is going to alter that. However, basing "fair" on the expected value is a mistake.

1. A high percentage of drops have well-known values; however, the rare items haven't been around enough to develop a stable price.
2. The expected value only tells us the break-even point: if you buy gifts at 6 800 , you should break even if you sell all the drops.
   • If profit is your motive for buying the gifts, 6 800 is too high, as it doesn't account for the hours you'll spend in trade channel trying to sell at those prices.
   • If your motive is gaining a particular item, 6 800 is too low, as it doesn't account for the fact that you are buying a lottery ticket...and lottery tickets sell at a premium relative to the expected value (most US states are required to sell tickets for at least 2x expected value).